Effect of exchange rates and gasoline price on export price of Vietnamese coffee

Abstract

Price fluctuation is not only an important issue to economic research but also to corporate managers, especially in agri-business industry. This research applied time series data analysis with linear models to identify and measure the impact of some factors such as exchange rate and gasoline price on the price of Vietnam's coffee exports in the period 2008-2014. With a cointegration between Vietnamese prices and world prices of coffee, the pairwise Granger test indicates the dependence of Vietnam coffee prices on world prices, but not vice-versa or Vietnam price could not affected world prices. The regression results in this study also estimate that exchange rates and gasoline price would affect export price of Vietnamese coffee. The regression models also suggest that coffee producers improve their knowledge on price signals from export markets. With better communication skills in markets sthrough the Internet, coffee producers and exporters would forecast the changes in export price to help them in production planning and empower them in trading negotiation with foreign trading companies.