The impact of geopolitical risks and financial development on renewable energy consumption in Vietnam
Authors
-
Nguyen Thi Hong
hongnt@ftu.edu.vn
Foreign Trade University, Hanoi, Viet Namhttps://orcid.org/0009-0008-2409-9814
- Nguyen Tra My
Foreign Trade University, Hanoi, Viet Namhttps://orcid.org/0009-0005-8429-6623- Nguyen Thi Minh Trang
Worldquant Investment Software Vietnam LLC, Hanoi, Viet Namhttps://orcid.org/0009-0006-7497-6593DOI:
10.46223/HCMCOUJS.econ.en.16.3.4377.2026Keywords:
financial development; geopolitical risks; renewable energy consumption; sustainable development; VietnamJEL Classification:
C32; G20; O13; Q43Abstract
At COP28 in R (2023), countries committed to scaling up renewable energy to curb CO2 emissions from fossil fuels (Grant et al, 2024). However, this transition faces significant challenges due to rising geopolitical risks that disrupt political stability and socio-economic conditions. This study examines the impact of geopolitical risks and financial development on renewable energy in the context of Viet Nam from 1995 to 2024. Results from the ARDL model indicate that geopolitical risks and financial development individually reduce renewable energy demand; however, their interaction significantly enhances renewable energy consumption. Based on these findings, several policy implications are proposed to help policymakers develop effective strategies for promoting the adoption of renewable energy.
Downloads
Download data is not yet available.References
Alsagr, N., & Van Hemmen, S. (2021). The impact of financial development and geopolitical risk on renewable energy consumption: Evidence from emerging markets. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28(20), 25906-25919.
Amin, S. B., Khan, F., & Rahman, M. A. (2022). The relationship between financial development and renewable energy consumption in South Asian countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(38), 58022-58036.
Anton, S. G., & Nucu, A. E. A. (2020). The effect of financial development on renewable energy consumption. A panel data approach. Renewable Energy, 147(1), 330-338.
Assi, A. F., Isiksal, A. Z., & Tursoy, T. (2021). Renewable energy consumption, financial development, environmental pollution, and innovations in the ASEAN+ 3 group: Evidence from (P-ARDL) model. Renewable Energy, 165(1), 689-700.
Bello, S., & Hassan, Y. A. (2024). Examining the effect of geopolitical risks on renewable energy consumption in OECD countries. Environmental Economics, 15(2), 108-117.
Bilgin, M. H., Gozgor, G., & Karabulut, G. (2020). How do geopolitical risks affect government investment? An empirical investigation. Defence and Peace Economics, 31(5), 550-564.
Cai, Y., & Wu, Y. (2021). Time-varying interactions between geopolitical risks and renewable energy consumption. International Review of Economics & Finance, 74, 116-137.
Caldara, D., & Iacoviello, M. (2022). Measuring geopolitical risk. American Economic Review, 112(4), 1194-1225.
Cao, V. T. H., & Le, D. D. (2023). Đầu tư trực tiếp nước ngoài vào năng lượng tái tạo tại Việt Nam: Thực trạng và một số hàm ý chính sách [Foreign direct investment in renewable energy in Vietnam: Current situation and some policy implications]. Tạp chí Kinh tế và Dự báo, 29(856).
Cheikh, N. B., & Zaied, Y. B. (2023). Renewable energy deployment and geopolitical conflicts. Journal of Environmental Management, 344, Article 118561.
D’Orazio, P., & Dirks, M. W. (2022). Exploring the effects of climate-related financial policies on carbon emissions in G20 countries: A panel quantile regression approach. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(5), 7678-7702.
Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 49(4),
1057-1072.
Diebold, F. X., & Yilmaz, K. (2009). Measuring financial asset return and volatility spillovers, with application to global equity markets. The Economic Journal, 119(534), 158-171.
Dirma, V., Neverauskienė, L. O., Tvaronavičienė, M., Danilevičienė, I., & Tamošiūnienė, R. (2024). The impact of renewable energy development on economic growth. Energies, 17(24), Article 6328.
Electricity and Renewable Energy Authority in Viet Nam (EREA) & Danish Energy Agency (DEA). (2022). Viet Nam energy outlook report 2021. https://vepg.vn/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Vietnam-Energy-Outlook-Report-2021-English.pdf
Eren, B. M., Taspinar, N., & Gokmenoglu, K. K. (2019). The impact of financial development and economic growth on renewable energy consumption: Empirical analysis of India. Science of the Total Environment, 663, 189-197.
Flouros, F., Pistikou, V., & Plakandaras, V. (2022). Geopolitical risk as a determinant of renewable energy investments. Energies, 15(4), Article 1498.
Fu, L., Tu, X., & Liao, J. (2024). Asymmetric impacts of climate policy uncertainty, investor sentiment on energy prices and renewable energy consumption: Evidence from NARDL and wavelet coherence. Journal of Environmental Management, 367, Article 122057.
Gozgor, G., Lau, C. K. M., & Lu, Z. (2018). Energy consumption and economic growth: New evidence from the OECD countries. Energy, 153, 27-34.
Gozgor, G., Lau, M. C. K., Zeng, Y., Yan, C., & Lin, Z. (2022). The impact of geopolitical risks on tourism supply in developing economies: The moderating role of social globalization. Journal of Travel Research, 61(4), 872-886.
Grant, N., Aboumahboub, T., Welder, L., & Fyson, C. (2024). Tripling renewables by 2030: Interpreting the global goal at the regional level. Climate Analytics. https://climateanalytics.org/publications/tripling-renewables-by-2030-interpreting-the-global-goal-at-the-regional-level
Grossman, G. M., & Krueger, A. B. (1995). Economic growth and the environment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(2), 353-377.
Gupta, N., & Jalal, A. S. (2020). Integration of textual cues for fine-grained image captioning using deep CNN and LSTM. Neural Computing and Applications, 32(24),
17899-17908.
Harris, R., & Sollis, R. (2003). Applied time series modelling and forecasting. John Wiley
and Sons.
Hochreiter, S., & Schmidhuber, J. (1997). Long short-term memory. Neural Computation, 9(8), 1735-1780.
Huong Giang (2021). Viet Nam to take stronger measures to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. https://primeminister.chinhphu.vn/viet-nam-to-take-stronger-measures-to-achieve-net-zero-emissions-by-2050-11240256.htm
Institute of Energy Vietnam. (2021). Vietnam energy statistics 2020. https://vepg.vn/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/English-Energy-statistics-2020-Dec-2021.pdf
International Energy Agency (IEA). (2024). Viet Nam - Countries & regions. https://www.iea.org/countries/viet-nam
International Monetary Fund. (2023). Financial development index database. https://legacydata.imf.org/?sk=f8032e80-b36c-43b1-ac26-493c5b1cd33b
Ji, Q., & Zhang, D. (2019). How much does financial development contribute to renewable energy growth and upgrading of energy structure in China? Energy Policy, 128,
114-124.
Khan, A., Chenggang, Y., Hussain, J., & Kui, Z. (2021). Impact of technological innovation, financial development and foreign direct investment on renewable energy, non-renewable energy and the environment in belt & road Initiative countries. Renewable Energy, 171, 479-491.
Khan, A., Sun, C., Xu, Z., & Liu, Y. (2023). Geopolitical risk, economic uncertainty, and militarization: Significant agents of energy consumption and environmental quality. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 102, Article 107166.
Lahiani, A., Mefteh-Wali, S., Shahbaz, M., & Vo, X. V. (2021). Does financial development influence renewable energy consumption to achieve carbon neutrality in the USA? Energy Policy, 158, Article 112524.
Le, H. T. (2024). A wavelet analysis of dynamic connectedness between geopolitical risk and renewable energy volatility during the Covid-19 pandemic and Ukraine-Russia conflicts. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 31(12), 17994-18009.
Le, T. H., Nguyen, C. P., & Park, D. (2020). Financing renewable energy development: Insights from 55 countries. Energy Research & Social Science, 68, Article 101537.
LeCun, Y., Bottou, L., Bengio, Y., & Haffner, P. (1998). Gradient-based learning applied to document recognition. Proceedings of the IEEE, 86(11), 2278-2324.
Levine, R. (2005). Finance and growth: Theory and evidence. Handbook of Economic Growth, 1(A), 865-934.
Lu, W., Li, J., Li, Y., Sun, A., & Wang, J. (2020). A CNN‐LSTM‐based model to forecast stock prices. Complexity, 2020(1), Article 6622927.
Mukhtarov, S., Yüksel, S., & Dinçer, H. (2022). The impact of financial development on renewable energy consumption: Evidence from Turkey. Renewable Energy, 187,
169-176.
Murshed, M., & Dao, N. T. T. (2022). Revisiting the CO2 emission-induced EKC hypothesis in South Asia: The role of export quality improvement. GeoJournal, 87(2), 535-563.
Nguyen, V. Q. (2021). Phát triển tín dụng cho năng lượng tái tạo ở Việt Nam [Credit development for renewable energy in VietNam] . Tạp chí Tài chính, 1(748), 48-51.
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). (2024). OECD patent databases. http://oe.cd/ipstats
Ozturk, N., & Karagoz, K. (2012). Relationship between inflation and financial development: Evidence from Turkey. International Journal of Alanya Faculty of Business, 4(2),
81-87.
Pata, U. K., & Samour, A. (2022). Do renewable and nuclear energy enhance environmental quality in France? A new EKC approach with the load capacity factor. Progress in Nuclear Energy, 149, Article 104249.
Pegkas, P. (2024). Energy consumption and human capital: Does human capital stimulate renewable energy? The case of Greece. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 15(4), 17256-17283.
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
PwC. (2024). Energy transition in Viet Nam: Strategic considerations for businesses. https://www.pwc.com/vn/en/publications/vietnam-publications/energy-transition-in-vietnam.html
Rasoulinezhad, E., Taghizadeh-Hesary, F., Sung, J., & Panthamit, N. (2020). Geopolitical risk and energy transition in Russia: Evidence from ARDL bounds testing method. Sustainability, 12(7), Article 2689.
Ren, X., Zhang, X., Yan, C., & Gozgor, G. (2022). Climate policy uncertainty and firm-level total factor productivity: Evidence from China. Energy Economics, 113, Article 106209.
Saadaoui, H. (2022). The impact of financial development on renewable energy development in the MENA region: The role of institutional and political factors. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(26), 39461-39472.
Saadaoui, H., & Chtourou, N. (2023). Do institutional quality, financial development, and economic growth improve renewable energy transition? Some evidence from Tunisia. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 14(3), 2927-2958.
Salari, M., Kelly, I., Doytch, N., & Javid, R. J. (2021). Economic growth and renewable and non-renewable energy consumption: Evidence from the US states. Renewable Energy, 178, 50-65.
Samour, A., Baskaya, M. M., & Tursoy, T. (2022). The impact of financial development and FDI on renewable energy in the UAE: A path towards sustainable development. Sustainability, 14(3), Article 1208.
Shahbaz, M., Topcu, B. A., Sarıgül, S. S., & Vo, X. V. (2021). The effect of financial development on renewable energy demand: The case of developing countries. Renewable Energy, 178, 1370-1380.
Sweidan, O. D. (2021). The geopolitical risk effect on the US renewable energy deployment. Journal of Cleaner Production, 293, Article 126189.
Tabash, M. I., Farooq, U., Al-Faryan, M. A. S., & Wong, W. K. (2024). Effect of geopolitical risk on energy consumption policy: New empirical evidence from BRICS. Heliyon, 10(19), 1-12.
Tanizaki, H. (1995). Asymptotically exact confidence intervals of CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests: A numerical derivation using simulation technique. Communications in Statistics-Simulation and Computation, 24(4), 1019-1036.
Thanh Huong (2024). Nhiệt điện than vẫn lo điện chính cho nền kinh tế [Coal-fired thermal power is still the main source of electricity for the economy]. Báo Đầu tư. https://baodautu.vn/nhiet-dien-than-van-lo-dien-chinh-cho-nen-kinh-te-d212192.html
Tran, A. T. X., Pham, M. T., & Tran, H. T. T. (2021). Cấu trúc hệ thống tài chính và định hướng phát triển cho Việt Nam giai đoạn 2020 - 2025 [Financial system structure and development orientation for Vietnam in the period 2020 - 2025]. Tạp chí Khoa học & Đào tạo Ngân hàng, 233, 1-15.
Wang, K. H., Kan, J. M., Jiang, C. F., & Su, C. W. (2022). Is geopolitical risk powerful enough to affect carbon dioxide emissions? Evidence from China. Sustainability, 14(13), Article 7867.
Wang, Q., & Dong, Z. (2021). Does financial development promote renewable energy? Evidence of G20 economies. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28(53), 64461-64474.
Wang, Q., Wang, X., & Li, R. (2024). Geopolitical risks and energy transition: the impact of environmental regulation and green innovation. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 11(1), 1-22.
Willis Towers Watson. (2023). Renewable energy market review 2023. https://www.wtwco.com/
World Bank. (2023). Taking stock august 2023: Making public investment work for growth. https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documentsreports/documentdetail/099408408092319382
World Bank. (2025). World development indicators database. https://data.worldbank.org/
Yi, S., Raghutla, C., Chittedi, K. R., & Fareed, Z. (2023). How economic policy uncertainty and financial development contribute to renewable energy consumption? The importance of economic globalization. Renewable Energy, 202, 1357-1367.
Zhang, H., Hong, H., & Ding, S. (2023). The role of climate policy uncertainty on the long-term correlation between crude oil and clean energy. Energy, 284, Article 128529.
Zhang, R. J., & Razzaq, A. (2022). Influence of economic policy uncertainty and financial development on renewable energy consumption in the BRICST region. Renewable Energy, 201, 526-533.
Downloads
Received: 11-05-2025Accepted: 28-07-2025Published: 07-09-2025Statistics Views
Abstract: 1074 PDF: 93How to Cite
Nguyen, H. T., Nguyen, M. T., & Nguyen, T. T. M. (2025). The impact of geopolitical risks and financial development on renewable energy consumption in Vietnam. HO CHI MINH CITY OPEN UNIVERSITY JOURNAL OF SCIENCE - ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION, 16(3), 116–138. https://doi.org/10.46223/HCMCOUJS.econ.en.16.3.4377.2026License
Copyright (c) 2025 Hong Thi Nguyen; My Tra Nguyen; Trang Thi Minh Nguyen

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
- Nguyen Tra My
